Next pandemic probability calculated: Findings are worrying

Next pandemic probability calculated: Findings are worrying 1


Can the probability of be calculated? In a new statistical study, scientists of the epidemic tried to calculate the probability of occurrence. Research group says major pandemics are much more likely than expected in lion common. Set, COVID-19 a pandemic with an unprecedented 2 percent announced that there is a possibility of realization.

Pandemic probability 38 percent over lifetime

emerging in new findings The 2% possibility is actually quite high. If we add this up over a lifetime, each of us at least oncelikelihood of having a great experience 38 percent. University of Padua and Duke University researchers carried out this study. PNAS

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Next pandemic probability calculated: Findings are worrying 2
A scene of the Spanish flu epidemic.

Team, since 1600 looked at the historical records of epidemics. With a known number of deaths, about half 476 documented pandemics they detected. While about 145 caused less than 10,000 deaths, we know that 114 more exist. But no deaths were detected in them. Moreover, they did not include currently active infectious diseases in the analysis. Well, COVID-19, HIV and malaria was not included in the study.

The group found that the annual number of outbreaks was highly variable. In addition, 1918-1920 Spanish flu a major epidemic once every 400 years in the middle of 0.3 to 1.9 percent calculated that there is a probability of it happening. In addition, the group in 60 yearsHe added that an epidemic of the size of COVID-19 is possible.

Next pandemic probability calculated: Findings are worrying 3

Scientists, in the last 50 years, pathogens states that it is increasingly infecting people. SARS-CoV-2 is the most obvious example of this. But swine flu, bird flu, Ebola and much more. Scientists are warning people about this issue. Now around to interfere less, to animal trade recommends that we stop and interact less with wild animals. Or, coronavirus It is not surprising that epidemics such as the pandemic continue.

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